Climatechange and Nepal

Least developed countries are the ultimate bearer of the likely impact of climate change albeit they are the less emitter in the world. They are more at risk from climate change because of their dependence on agriculture, especially the subsistence sort with poor irrigation. Climate variability has a more severe impact on the economies in which agriculture is a large share of GDP. Developed as well as few newly emerging developing economies are the major pollutants. They are emitting a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) as they consume unlimited quantity of fossil fuel to sustain their economic growth rate and maintain the their living standard thus giving birth to global warming. Scientists have proved that GHG emission is the sole agent of global warming and climate change. The intensity of the impact of global warming and climate change is more sensitive to the less emitting countries like Nepal.

Nepal is a poor country based on agriculture with low level of per capita income averaging approximately at $ 340 per year. Over 50% of its population lives under absolute poverty having income less than $1.25 a day. Majority of farmers live under this category. They farm such small area of land that at the best of time can barely produce enough food for the family relying on rainfall. Improvement of their living condition depends primarily on agriculture development. Efforts are being placed to achieve higher economic growth through improving agricultural GDP and the progress has been disappointing over the years as it depends on the vagaries of monsoon.

Nepal is extremely vulnerable to climate change like other GHG gas non-emitting countries. Its emission level is lowest in the world measuring only 0.025% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, this ratio is increasing over time. From the last couple of years, Nepal has been experiencing flooding, landslides, drought and variability in the occurrence of the regular course of monsoon. Flooding of the Kosi River in monsoon, over the past two years has displaced millions in Nepal as well as in Bihar (India). On the other hand, a weakened and irregular monsoon is causing drought threatening hundreds of millions of farmers all over India, Bangladesh and Nepal while heavy rains have caused terrible landslides across the Himalayas. The agriculture production particularly paddy in the current year in Nepal will decrease by half due to the late monsoon. Likewise, last year’s drought plagued winter has adversely affected this year’s food production creating deficit of food. Currently up to 3.4 million people are estimated to require food assistance in Nepal due to a combination of natural disasters (particularly winter drought) affecting agricultural production and higher food prices, reducing people’s ability to purchase food. Scientists claim that Nepal is getting warmer. Monsoon changes its regular course in a slow and creeping manner. While none of these natural disasters can be directly attributed to climate change, scientists predict that they will become more frequent and more severe unless we act properly.

Furthermore, scientists claim that increasing warming and changes in the occurrence of monsoon in Nepal are the worst consequences of climate change agriculture sector facing its dire effects with the fall in production and productivity. Most of the arable land remains fallow as its cultivation depends on the rainfall resulting in food supply shortages. The livelihood of the majority of farmers is in danger due to crop failures arising from the uncertainty of monsoon. It is the poorest who are most vulnerable to these natural disasters getting most severely affected by the climate change. The rising trend of warming if allowed to continue will put the Himalayan glacier in danger. Scientists have warned that the fast melting of ice in the Himalayan range will convert the ever flowing river into desert after 30 years. There will be shortage of water that would put livelihood of 1 billion people in danger.

Nepal is being affected by the climate change because of the GHG emissions it did not emit nonetheless Nepal itself has a scope of creating GHG emissions.  It plans to get higher rate of economic growth that needs a large quantity of fossil fuel. The association between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth is robust. In a study conducted by this writer has found that the demand for hydrocarbon in Nepal is sensitively associated with a small change in both income and price. Moreover, the numbers of vehicle are on the rise meaning the consumption of fuel is on the rise as well. Fossil fuel is the sole agent for producing carbon dioxide (CO2). More the consumption of fossil fuel more would be the generation of CO2 in the atmosphere which is the main contributor to GHG emissions. Therefore Nepal needs to place heavy efforts to control GHG emissions in the future because its trend has been rising due to the increased use of fossil fuel.

In this effect, Nepal needs to pursue a low carbon development path to tackle the problem of climate change. Various options can be looked into in order to reduce GHG emissions by developing renewable energy. The first option is to harness immense the largely untapped water resources to generate electricity. The second option is to explore, develop and exploit solar and wind power system. The third option is to encourage installing biogas plant. These options really are viable and possible. They can provide clean energy to the people at large, increase the energy efficiency of its economy and increase forest cover if developed adequately. Nepal can demonstrate carbon savings through these approaches and open room for trading it. Nepal has realized to develop alternative energy sources to put Nepal’s economy onto a low carbon path and recognizes the benefits for its energy security and sustainable development. But political instability, insecurity and lack of commitment are the major impediments that hinder its development in a faster .

(Adopted