The Impact of People Upon the Planet
Changes in the human population, including aging and urbanization, could significantly affect global emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 40 years.
These findings appear in a paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), were recognized by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Their work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), a European Young Investigator's Award, and the Hewlett Foundation.
"By examining the relationship between population dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions, this groundbreaking research increases our understanding of how human behaviors, decisions and lifestyles will determine the path of future climate change," says Sarah Ruth, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funds NCAR.
Three Billion More Urban Dwellers by 2050?
By mid-century it is estimated that global population could rise by more than three billion people, with most of that increase occurring in urban areas.
The study showed that a slowing of that population growth could contribute to significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Slowing Population Growth
The researchers found that if population follows one of the slower growth paths foreseen as plausible by demographers at the United Nations, by 2050 it could account for 16 to 29 percent of the emission reductions thought necessary to keep global temperatures from causing serious impacts.
The effect of slower population growth on greenhouse gas emissions would be even larger by the end of the century.
"If global population growth slows down, it is not going to solve the climate problem, but it can make a contribution, especially in the long term," says the paper's lead author, Brian O'Neill, an NCAR scientist. (source:http://geology.com)
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