Climate change impacts on Afganistan(Asia)

Current Climatic Trends 

Afghanistan is a mountainous and very dry country located in the arid sub‐tropics at
9‐37° north of the equator.  Afghanistan has an arid and semi-arid continental climate
with cold winters and hot summers.  The lowland plains in the south of Afghanistan
experience extreme seasonal variations in temperature, with average summer (JJA)
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temperatures exceeding 33°C and mean winter (DJF) temperatures of around 10°C.
Much of the country is at very high altitude and experiences much lower temperatures all
year round, with average summer temperatures not exceeding 15°C, and winter
temperatures below zero in the highest regions.
• Afghanistan is currently suffering the most severe drought in living memory.  The country
is characterised by large areas with little to no precipitation; that which does occur falls
mostly as snow on high mountains from winter storms (of Mediterranean origin) between
November and April with peaks in February/March. The snow season varies considerably
with elevation. The Asian summer monsoon system helps to keep rainfall low over
Afghanistan. Dust storms are a significant part of the climate system associated with
northerly winds in warm months.
• Despite the absence of good long term climatic records, available data and trends from
neighbouring countries indicate that mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6°C
since 1960, at an average rate of around 0.13°C per decade. Increases have been most
pronounced during the autumn (SON), with increases at an average rate of 0.29°C per
decade and a significant increase in the number of exceptionally hot days and nights

Changes in precipitation regimes tend to vary more between regions than temperature.
Mean rainfall over Afghanistan has decreased slightly (at an average rate of 0.5mm per
month (or 2 percent per decade) since 1960. This is mainly due to decreases of around
2.7mm per month (6.6 percent per decade) in spring (MAM) rainfall.  The proportion of
rainfall that occurs in heavy events has not changed with any consistent trend since
1960.






Changes in Temperature
• Current models indicate significant warming across all regions of Afghanistan with
average predicted increases in temperature of between 2C and 6.2C by 2090s
dependent on global emissions scenarios.  Warming is most rapid in spring/summer with
this trend being marked in the north and the central plains of Afghanistan.  These
increases are also consistent with the broad regional observed temperature trends in
Central Asia.  All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and
nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate, especially during summer months.
• Up to 2030s, the amount of warming is not sensitive to global emission scenarios. The
mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 4.0°C by the 2060s,
compared to 1970-1999 averages.
• By 2090, the range of projections by the 2090s under any one emissions scenario is
around 1.5 to 2.5°C. The range of potential annual temperature increases is noticeably
influenced by global emission scenarios
Source:(livelihoodsrc.dfid.gov.uk)